October’s CPI report arrives on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is 7:00 p.m. in India. It is the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve meets on December 8 and 9, so traders are watching it closely.
Forecasters expect a calmer month than September. The estimates we found put both overall and core prices up about 0.2% to 0.3% in October, compared with 0.6% overall in September.
There is a twist this month. The report will not include a yearly inflation rate for overall prices. Here is why, and what to watch instead.
Key facts at a glance
- Release: Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET (7:00 p.m. IST)
- What it covers: consumer prices for October 2026
- Last reading (September): overall prices up 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the year; core prices up 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the year
- Fed meeting: December 8-9, with the statement on December 9
- Next CPI report: Thursday, December 10
What forecasters expect
The estimates we found point to a smaller monthly rise than September’s 0.6%.
| Measure | September (actual) | October forecast | Forecaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall CPI, month over month | +0.6% | +0.3% | RBC Economics |
| Overall CPI, month over month | +0.6% | +0.24% | Cleveland Fed nowcast (Nov 6) |
| Core CPI, month over month | +0.3% | +0.3% | RBC Economics |
| Core CPI, month over month | +0.3% | +0.21% | Cleveland Fed nowcast (Nov 6) |
These are two forecasts, not a full survey consensus. Check a live economic calendar on Tuesday morning for the consensus number, because the market reacts to the gap between the result and the consensus.
Where inflation stands, and why there is no yearly rate
September’s report showed overall prices up 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the year, with core prices (which leave out food and energy) up 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the year.
October’s report works differently. The 2025 government shutdown ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025, and it stopped BLS from collecting October 2025 prices. With no October 2025 base to compare against, BLS says it will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 where that data is missing.
- No yearly rate: overall, core, energy, food and rent.
- Yearly rate still published: gasoline, new vehicles and used cars.
- Monthly changes: still published, overall and core.
So on Tuesday, the monthly numbers carry the story. If you see a yearly inflation figure quoted for October, it is someone’s own estimate, not a BLS number. One analysis put it near 3.8% using a stand-in for last year’s missing prices, but that is the writer’s own calculation.
Why it matters: the Fed’s December decision
This is the last CPI report before the Federal Reserve meets on December 8 and 9. After Friday’s strong jobs report, futures priced roughly a 78% to 80% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at that meeting. The next CPI report, on December 10, comes after the decision.
The usual pattern, which is a tendency and not a rule:
- Hotter than forecast: rate-hike expectations rise, and Treasury yields and the dollar often rise with them.
- Cooler than forecast: hike expectations ease, and yields and the dollar often slip.
- In line: attention shifts to details such as shelter and energy, and to the next data release.
Markets can also react in the opposite way, especially in the first minutes after a release, when prices can swing both directions.
What to watch beyond the headline number
- Core, month over month. September’s core rise was 0.3%. A reading above that would stand out, while the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast sits near 0.21%.
- The gap between overall and core. In September, overall rose 0.6% while core rose 0.3%, so food and energy accounted for the difference. See whether that gap closes.
- Shelter. Shelter made up about 35.6% of the CPI basket in BLS’s December 2025 weights, so small moves in rent and owners’ equivalent rent have a large effect.
- Gasoline. Its yearly change is still published this month, which makes it one of the few yearly figures available.
- Data quality. BLS reduced CPI data collection in 2025, and a correction notice covers energy data for one city. Read the footnotes on release day.
New to the terms? Read our beginner’s guide, What Is CPI?.
Sources and disclaimer
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading carries a high risk of loss. Read our full Risk Disclaimer.
Forecasts and dates were gathered on November 6 and 7, 2026 and can change. Confirm the release time and figures on the BLS site.
- BLS, Consumer Price Index for September’s figures and the release date
- StockTitan, October 2026 CPI preview for the forecasts, the missing yearly rate and the Fed dates
- BLS, owners’ equivalent rent and rent for the shelter weight
- Morningstar, hot October jobs report raises odds of December rate hike for the rate-hike odds