Gold finished the week near $4,070 an ounce, up more than 4%, its strongest weekly gain since August. A weaker dollar, falling yields and a sharp drop in oil did the work. Friday’s strong jobs report cut into the gains but did not erase them.
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The week day by day
| Day | Gold (XAU/USD) | What moved it |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Nov 3 | Down about 0.5% to $3,927 | Stronger dollar and higher yields. September job openings came in at 7.5 million against about 7.15 million expected. |
| Wednesday, Nov 4 | Up more than 3% to about $4,060 | US midterm results. The dollar fell to a more-than-one-month low and Treasury yields dropped. Gold reclaimed $4,000. |
| Thursday, Nov 5 | High of about $4,146.63 | Highest since October 20. The dollar was near its weakest since late September and the 10-year yield hit about a two-month low. |
| Friday, Nov 6 | Fell to about $4,033, then closed near $4,070 | October payrolls rose 165,000 against about 65,000 expected. The dollar jumped about 0.7%. |
Outlets round the weekly gain differently, from “more than 4%” to 5%, depending on the price they start from.
Why oil matters to gold
Oil fell about 8% in a single session this week. Cheaper oil eases inflation worries, and that lowers the pressure on the Fed to keep raising rates. Gold pays no interest, so it tends to benefit when rate fears ease and the dollar weakens. Friday showed the other side: a strong jobs report pushed up the dollar and sent gold down more than 1% at one point.
The rate-hike risk is still there
After Friday’s jobs data, markets priced about an 81% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, up from about 73%. That is the main headwind. Even after this week’s jump, gold is still about 13% below where it traded six months ago.
Levels and what to watch
- $4,000: the round-number level gold reclaimed on Wednesday and held into Friday’s close. Whether it holds is the key question for next week.
- About $4,146: Thursday’s high, the highest since October 20.
- Tuesday, November 10: October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET (7:00 p.m. IST). A cooler reading could help gold, a hot one could hurt. See our [CPI preview] and [What is CPI?].
- December 8 to 9: the next Fed meeting.
- Tech stocks: Friday’s dollar demand came partly from investors weighing how far the tech selloff could go. See [Why tech stocks crashed this week].
The takeaway for traders
Gold moved more than 3% in a single day this week. If you trade XAU/USD or gold futures, check your stop distance and position size against that kind of range before a high-impact release like CPI. Levels like $4,000 are reference points, not guarantees.